Dave Oswald Homes's Blog by Dave Oswald

Lakeville Homes For Sale and More!

Here we are in the best time of the annual real estate market: January 15th through May 15th. Historically, 60% of the annual MLS inventory in the 13 county metro area will sell during this time. Showings are up, sales are up, interest rates are relatively low and sellers are willing to negotiate. Who could ask for more? Actually, "more" is the problem. More inventory than ever before! Experts now predict 150,000 homes wil be on the local market this year at one time or another. Those same experts predict we'll see only 46,000 with a SOLD sign. The Real Estate Supply Rate is expressed in months. Essentially it means, given a community's housing inventory, at the current rate of sales (absorbtion), how many months will it take to sell out if no other homes went up for sale. In Burnsville, currently, with 366 homes for sale the Supply Rate is 6.9 months. Apple Valley with 419 homes is 7.9 months. Lakeville (where new home builders have gone wild!) the rate is 8.2 months for ..(read more)

Vacant Houses

Here's another good news - bad news tidbit: home sales activity is on the rise but so are listings. The number of vacant active listings is up a whopping 35% over a year ago and climbing. This is due to a combination of causes. One, you already know: foreclosures are at an all-time high. Another is that people are buying houses before their current home sells. They move into their new home in joyful anticipation of their former address having a SOLD sign on it soon. I have heard of new home builders in Dakota County slashing prices on 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3 car garage homes 40, 50, even 100 thousand dollars!! Buyers are jumping in on the rock bottom prices before their current homes sell. The good news is our economy remains strong, interest rates are relatively low, unemployment is low and there is plenty of inventory from which buyers can choose their next home. The American dream remains in reach! Hallelujah!!

The Good, Bad and Ugly of Real Estate

Here's some not-so-cheerful news: Housing related jobs are decreasing and the equity from homes has been tapped propping up the retail sector the past few years. A downturn in property values, tapped equity in housing, an aging population, a volatile international economy, higher interest rates and high risk lending practices the past few years may just have created the perfect storm that could lead the US and Minnesota into a recession. Foreclosures are at an all-time high as are occupancy rates in the rental market (see a corelation?) Baby-boomers that bet their retirement funding on their home equity may need to scale back their plans. In January of 2006, the 13 county metro area had a 5.1 month supply of homes in the $350K-$500K range. In January 2007 the supply is 7.3 months - up 43%! Lakeville has a 6.7 month supply, Apple Valley has 11.1 month's worth and Farmington is bursting with a 22.2 month supply in that price range! Go up a notch to the $500K-$1Million ..(read more)

2006 Metro Median Home Prices

Sunday's (1/28/07) St. Paul Pioneer Press had an easy-to-read chart showing the changes in median home prices for 2006 by neighborhood in the 13 County Metro Area. Overall, the Metro's median home price went up a meager one-half of one percent. Closer to home, we saw Southern Dakota County drop 10% while Lakeville stayed even. Apple Valley and Farmington both rose 1.3%. Burnsville dropped nine-tenths of one percent and Northfield, with its extensively hail-damaged properties, dropped 5.6%. Rosemount rose 4.2% but eastern Dakota County plummetted 17.2%!! Kudos to the reporters assembling this data from the area's Realtor associations. They were professional enough to present this information as a reflection of market activity for particular areas and not a suggestion of a specific home's change in value. One must take several factors into account to determine the health of the market. This way of viewing activity is just one. The real important question is......how fast ..(read more)

Market Stats for Lakeville & Apple Valley

Interesting data shows us how the market can turn over the course of a couple years. Take Lakeville for example. In 2004 there were 1280 new listings and 1182 closed transactions. Fairly even supply and demand, right? In 2005, 1374 new listings but only 1080 closed sales - quite a drop. The sand begins to shift! In 2006, listings jumped way up to 1783 and closed sales dropped to 953. Remember Econ 101 in college? When supply significantly exceeds demand prices soften and selling cycle times lengthen. What happened to those 830 Lakeville homes that didn't sell? Chances are they're still on the market today but at lower prices. Apple Valley saw similar results. 2004 had 1217 new listings and 1250 closed transactions (carryover from 2003 no doubt) while 2005 slowed down with 1384 listings and 1027 closed sales. Then came 2006: 1638 listings with only 966 sales! Yikes! Same question as Lakeville: 672 listings didn't sell in 2006. Where are they now? ..(read more)

What A Weekend!

Real estate activity seems to be increasing, happily. Historically, 60% of a year's real estate sales take place between January 15 and May 15. While no one expects to see a return to the hot, Hot, HOT market we had a few years ago, 2007 is expected to return to a more normal pace by the end of the year. Don't expect appreciation this year. In fact, many homes in Dakota County experienced depreciation in 2006. Serious sellers must price the homes accordingly to achieve a sale. On a personal note, my thanks to Major Mike Asleson of the MN State Highway Patrol. Friday night (8PM-4:30AM) I was allowed to ride-along with Mike during a multi-agency saturation patrol aimed at getting drunk drivers off the Twin Cities' highways. Operation Night-Cap resulted in many arrests and we were all a lot safer because of it!

Welcome!

I kept hearing about "blogging" but simply dismissed it as something related to saggy sweatpants, expensive running shoes and one of those silly terry-cloth headbands with a swoosh on it. Then, as I was discussing creating a newsletter with my 26 yr old daughter, I was informed a web log (blog) could accomplish the same thing and would be less stressful on my joints. Makes sense to me! You can expect to see market updates, real estate related opinions/ideas/random thoughts, and the ocassional life experience observations. Let me know what you think or wish to contribute. Thought for the day: Resentments drain life away. Lose 'em and LIVE!